wishful-thinking-detector — quality + safety report

---
name: wishful-thinking-detector
description: Hunt down wishful thinking in plans, forecasts, business cases, status updates, pitches, and your own ideas. Activate when reviewing a plan, vetting a pitch, evaluating a forecast that looks rosy, reading a status update that seems too clean, sanity-checking an investment thesis, assessing a startup or product strategy, stress-testing assumptions, doing a pre-mortem, scrutinizing a roadmap, or whenever the user says "this feels too easy," "am I being optimistic," "poke holes in this," "what am I missing," "stress test this," "does this make sense," or "should I do this." Apply Musk's truth-obsession discipline from "Obsess Over Truth": isolate axioms, surface filtered evidence, name the wish underneath the plan, and assume you are losing even when it looks like you are winning. Trigger eagerly even when the user does not name Musk or the framework.
---

# Wishful Thinking Detector

> "In business and personal life, wishful thinking causes a lot of mistakes. You have to ask whether something is true or not. If something ever feels too easy or doesn't quite make sense...it is probably wishful thinking."
> — Elon Musk, *The Book of Elon* (Chapter: Obsess Over Truth)

## What this skill captures

Wishful thinking is the default operating mode of the human brain. People filter out information they don't want to be true, then build plans on top of the filtered picture. Musk's counter-discipline: treat truth as a physics problem. Axioms must be right, conclusions must follow, and feedback must be sought from every source — especially the ones that hurt. This skill forces that discipline onto any plan, pitch, forecast, or self-assessment in front of you.

The core claim: if it feels too easy or doesn't quite add up, that's not a vibe — that's a signal. Trust it.

## When to use this skill

- Reviewing a plan, roadmap, or strategy
- A forecast, model, or business case that looks unusually clean
- A status update where everything is green
- Evaluating a pitch (yours or someone else's)
- Vetting your own idea before committing resources
- Pre-mortems and risk reviews
- Investment theses, hiring decisions, or any high-stakes commit
- Anytime the user says "this feels too easy," "poke holes," "stress test this," "am I missing something," "does this make sense," "should I do this"

## The how-to

1. **Name the wish.** Write one sentence: "The author of this plan wants ___ to be true." Until the wish is on the page, you cannot detect filtering.
   > "Wishful thinking is innate in the human brain. You want things to be the way you wish them to be, so you tend to filter out information you shouldn't."
   > — Elon Musk, *The Book of Elon* (Obsess Over Truth)

2. **List the axioms, then attack them.** Extract every load-bearing assumption (market size, adoption rate, build time, retention, conversion, headcount, competitor response, regulator behavior). For each, ask: is this a measured fact, a recommendation, or a wish dressed as a fact?
   > "Do you have the right fundamental axioms, or truths? Are they relevant? Are you making the right conclusions based on those truths?"
   > — Elon Musk, *The Book of Elon* (Obsess Over Truth)

3. **Apply the "too easy" test.** Walk the plan end to end. Flag every step that feels frictionless, every number that's suspiciously round, every dependency described in one sentence.
   > "If something ever feels too easy or doesn't quite make sense…it is probably wishful thinking."
   > — Elon Musk, *The Book of Elon* (Obsess Over Truth)

4. **Hunt the filtered evidence.** What sources of feedback has the plan ignored, dismissed, or not sought? Customers who churned, deals that died, prior attempts at this idea, hostile reviewers, the team member who keeps raising the awkward question.
   > "Look for feedback from all sources."
   > — Elon Musk, *The Book of Elon* (Obsess Over Truth)

5. **Run the physics check.** Is any step incompatible with a hard constraint — unit economics, latency budget, headcount math, regulatory reality, conservation of mass?
   > "If you have beliefs that are incompatible with a rocket getting to orbit, the rocket will not get to orbit. Physics is a harsh judge."
   > — Elon Musk, *The Book of Elon* (Obsess Over Truth)

6. **Assume you are losing.** Re-read the plan with the prior "we are losing." Which slides still hold up? Which collapse?
   > "That's why I always assume we're losing, even when it looks like we might win."
   > — Elon Musk, *The Book of Elon* (Obsess Over Truth)

7. **Distinguish perseverance from delusion.** Belief in a new idea and pursuit of an unrealistic dream look identical from inside. The separator is rigorous self-analysis plus confidence the thing has high value to *someone else*.
   > "You need to be rigorous in your self-analysis. Focus on something you're confident will have high value to someone else. Be rigorous in making that assessment too."
   > — Elon Musk, *The Book of Elon* (Obsess Over Truth)

8. **Deliver the verdict.** Output: (a) the wish, (b) the 2-5 axioms most likely to be wrong, (c) the filtered evidence, (d) the physics violations, (e) a kill/keep/rework recommendation. Do not soften it. Sycophancy is wishful thinking with manners.

## Common failure modes

- Listing risks generically ("market risk, execution risk") instead of naming the specific wish.
- Critiquing wording while leaving the load-bearing axioms untouched.
- "Yes, and" energy — adding caveats while still endorsing the plan. If you cannot articulate the kill case, you have not done the work.
- Treating optimism as a personality trait to respect rather than a bias to correct.
- Missing the meta-wish: the user often wants the skill to validate the plan. Refuse.
- Confusing tenacity with truth. A founder can be rigorously honest *and* keep going; the two are not opposites.

## When NOT to use this skill

- Pure brainstorming where breadth matters more than rigor (yet).
- Emotional support requests — the user wants to be heard, not audited.
- Decisions already made and irreversible; pivot to execution risk instead.
- Trivial low-stakes choices where the audit costs more than the bad outcome.
- Creative or artistic work being judged on craft, not on prediction.

## Source

The Book of Elon by Eric Jorgenson (2026, Scribe Media). Chapter: "Obsess Over Truth" (in "Think Like a Physicist"), pp. 54-57.